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I guess the one with the most debts.
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Not including boutique I would say E&Y.
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Likely to be one of those with a partner model, as it will be difficult for them to make a capital call if needed.
PwC are a likely candidate, given the pain they are likely to face over Satyam (sp?). EY's advisory business is also struggling.
Outside the Big 4, PA Consulting had a good year last year but their forward order book for 2009 is looking very bleak. They also hived off their ventures arm in 2008, through an internal move which cost the business about £50m in cash. So PA may struggle with cash flow in 2009, and could be the first to go.
Overall though, I'd say EY BAS will be the first to go bang by the Summer.
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Sorry to disappoint, "The Oracle", it would seem that your analysis of PA is a bit wide of the mark.
The forward order book at PA is in pretty good shape - certainly when compared to that of many competing firms. Take a look on the Top Consultant jobs page and you'll see that PA are still hiring - unlike many other firms.
PA has squirrelled away more than £200m in cash, so the only cash problem the firm continues to have is what to do with it.
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I am putting my money on PwC - another Arthur Andersen case.....
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dont know, but PWC were the auditors for satyam...looks like they have some explaining to do.
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But Satyam does not seem big enough to bring down PwC?
1- Smaller £$£ amount
2- Lower profile business
3- Less (or NO) evidence PwC colluded
4- Not in the US
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Why the assumption that one of the bigger firms will go bust?
I personally don't think it'll happen.
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Firstly PWC will be more than fine. Its advisory practice is OK and the audit practice is not complicit with the satyam chairman ! I'd keep one eye on E&Y !
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I agree that EY will struggle, but BAS in particular, is in real trouble. The audit firm can’t keep subsidising this albatross forever.
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So are all the E&Y job adds on Top-Consultant.com just window dressing?
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bearing point...if you want to consider them as "consultants" at all
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"So are all the E&Y job adds on Top-Consultant.com just window dressing?"
That doesn’t prove anything. Many organisations will make people redundant, while hiring staff into specific areas where there are skill gaps.
I suggest you go back and study Org Design 101 again, you twit
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Of the five EY jobs I see on the TC site, two are for corporate finance (restructuring), two are duplicates, and one is a catch-all advert not related to a specific job. So, there is one job (possibly). As B.O.B. says, job adverts don't mean jobs exist. The recruitment advertiser's job is to place adverts - they aren't kept appraised of layoff plans, and can't stop doing the task they're being paid to do even if there are fairly clear indications that the positions being advertised no longer exist.
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A - that just isn't true - at least it doesn't relate to the experience that we have with our clients (not specifically EY). Those that place the adverts work closely with the business and certainly are appraised of layoff plans. I would say that our clients' advertising is more carefully considered now that it ever has been.
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Man on the Clapham Omnibus, I would like some of whatever you are smoking. BAS is one of the most successful parts of the EY business. If anyone is subsidising anyone else, it's BAS subsidising audit, not the other way around.
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lucky these are partnerships, otherwise the Robert Peston style posts might cause some extreme shorting otherwise !
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Even were these publicly traded companies, this forum is not influential enough, nor the above posts well argued enough, to cause any trader with half a brain to go short.
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"trader with half a brain" - there is the problem.
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How could any trader short at the moment. Short selling has been suspended !
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no it hasn't - banking was banned for a few months but now you can short that again.
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I stand corrected. Short selling shares was meant to be suspended until 31/01 but was lifted early (close of market Friday)
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I am just wondering how much of the nonsense you mentioned above as true and how much is pure speculation.
If you are in consulting and you start putting your finger up in the air and guessing without any sort of data. I will say good luck on making a follow on sale on guessing EY is in trouble or PWC in trouble without much real solid numbers.
If you say KPMG is in trouble that might ring a bell as they are already in cost cutting mode to keep the business running neither PWC nor EY has stated any cost cut yet. Yet you have so much confidence stating EY BAS will go bust first is just utterly taking a mickey!
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Calm down Bassman ! You obviously work for EY.
I heard EY had 9 weeks cash reserves before they had to file for chapter 11.
Whether its true or not I can't say.
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